229 | Market Update for Patient Investors: June 30, 2025
A market update for normal people thru the first six months of 2025.
Interest paid on cash so far this year is the blue dot. Cash is never to be confused as an investment - "no risk = no return" even if you have a good interest rate.
Since 2014, the best single year for the average all-stock (relatively more risky) or all-bond (relatively less risky) portfolio is the green line. An ongoing reminder that stockholders get the biggest rewards.
Since 2014, the worst single year for the average all-stock or all-bond portfolio is the red line. Stockholders have the most heartache too.
Folks with a paycheck often aim for the wide side of the cone, those without one tend to aim for the middle.
The gray dots below are for the average all-stock or all-bond portfolio this year. So far an above average year, despite the shock of tariffs and the doom of headlines.
Since January 1, $100k invested in stocks is now ~$110k and $1m is ~$1.1m.
Here is where it's helpful to remember our investments aren’t a black box. When we invest, we own teeny slivers of real companies operating in the same uncertain world we experience each day.
The gray dots are a blend of all public companies from all over the world - the orange x's go one layer deeper to show us smaller pieces of the gray dots.
But remember whether these six months had been good or bad, it’s not about the days or months or years when we invest, it’s about the decades. And it's hard to be disappointed over a decade. The gray and orange are annualized returns for the past 10 years - a fancy way to say it’s like you got 10% every year for 10 straight years.
In the good times and bad times, patient investing knows that…
- Basic understanding enables ignorance.
- Someone will always beat you.
- Effort ≠ Results.
- Owners get the upside (and the other side too).
- Spreading your eggs reduces the pain.
- The short term can disappoint.
- Patience is the only shortcut.
- Investments are a distraction in our relationship with money.